Homeowner Confidence: opposing forces
Zillow tracks Homeowner Confidence quarterly, and for the last 1.5 years, has seen expectations move more toward reality. But the 3rd quarter of 2009, homeowner perceptions were widely divergent. The Northeast owners were overly cynical about values, and the Western states, overly optimistic.
Some interesting results:
"Nationwide, when asked about their own home’s value over the past year:
• 25% think their home’s value has increased
• 26% think their home’s value has stayed the same
• 49% think their home’s value has decreased
"In reality, 72 percent of U.S. homes lost value over the past year, and 22 percent of homes increased in value. That’s fewer homes declining versus Q2(83%), and a smaller Misperception Index of 10 (vs. 13 in Q2 and 17 in Q3 2008).
"When asked about future home values, a trend continued that we’ve seen over the past year — a large number of homeowners thinks their home’s value will increase over the coming six months. Or put another way, the vast majority of homeowners - 84 percent - believes their home has reached a bottom and will not decline any further. Specifically:
• 41% think their home’s value will increase in the next six months
• 43% think their home’s value will stay the same
• 17% of homeowners think their home’s value will decrease"
The events of the next few months will determine whether the homeowners are too optimistic about the future or (hopefully) right on. In Florida, foreclosures are still increasing but the number of sales are also. We may reach a balance between inventory and sales (or not). The extension of the 1st time homebuyer tax credit will continue to create incentives for home purchase, as will the credit to existing homeowners to trade up. These will be offset by unemployment.
I see great opportunity in our Daytona Beach and Ormond Beach markets, not just for 1st time buyers but also for investors. Contact me to discuss our prices and bargains!
Sherry Armstrong, Realtor
yourkeytothebeach@gmail.com
386-679-3191
(resource: Zillow.com)